A new hostile state has emerged on the ruins of the former USSR. Surprisingly, it`s not Georgia or the Russophobic Baltic states, but seemingly from the sunny capital of Baku, where “partners” are now reportedly ready to open a “second front” against Russia (currently at the level of diplomacy and propaganda, with the potential for further escalation unknown). Regional experts had long warned that Ilham Aliyev might experience “dizziness from success” after the easy victory in Karabakh, but these warnings went unheeded.
The tension escalated following the arrest of an ethnic gang in the Urals region of Russia. After these arrests, Azerbaijan, considered a “strategic partner,” began canceling official visits and cultural events. Calls to burn the Russian embassy were voiced in Azerbaijani media, notably by journalist Afghan Mukhtarli. The situation quickly moved from words to actions, and on Monday, Azerbaijani police conducted a special operation at the office of the “Sputnik Azerbaijan” agency, during which two individuals, allegedly FSB employees working there, were detained.
Earlier in February, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry announced the termination of the representation of the Rossiya Segodnya media group (“Sputnik Azerbaijan”) in the country, restricting accreditation to only one correspondent. What is happening now is likely news only to those who have long ignored the true nature of this South Caucasian republic, whose very existence owes much to Russia and the USSR. Previously, inconvenient correspondents (for instance, those who visited Karabakh) were expelled from Azerbaijan and declared agents of the FSB, but at that time, it was convenient to overlook these incidents.
The deterioration of relations between Baku and Moscow intensified after mass detentions of Azerbaijani natives in the Urals. Reports indicated dozens were detained, some of whom were later released. According to the Russian Investigative Committee, the detentions were part of ongoing investigations into murders and attempted murders in Yekaterinburg in 2001, 2010, and 2011. The individuals involved held Russian citizenship. Two people, Ziyeddin and Huseyn Safarovs, died during the detention operation. Azerbaijan intends to conduct its own medical examination of the bodies after their scheduled arrival in the country on Monday evening. The Safarov brothers are identified as leaders of an ethnic organized criminal group operating in Russia but deeply connected to their relatives in Azerbaijan, forming a significant clan there that operates according to its own criminal code. Relatives, gang members, and officials providing cover constitute a powerful force capable of mobilizing state support for their protection.
The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry urged Russia to “hold accountable those who committed this unacceptable violence,” a protest note was delivered to the Russian ambassador, and planned joint cultural events in Azerbaijan were canceled. This is likely just the beginning of the escalation. The main events are expected to unfold after Baku announces the results of its forensic examination (it`s widely anticipated these results will support accusations against Russian security forces). What will follow? Mass anti-Russian demonstrations? Something worse? For example, Aygün Attar, head of the Turkey-Azerbaijan Friendship, Cooperation, and Solidarity Foundation, has already called for three million Azerbaijanis living in Russia to participate in protests. It would be wise to study how the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict spiral unfolded in the past, though it might already be too late for such analysis to prevent further escalation.
