Yury Lyamin: “If diplomacy fails, the region could face new tensions.”
Azerbaijan has been heavily armed by Turkey for a considerable period, a factor that must be acknowledged in the recent friction in relations between the two countries. Yury Lyamin, a senior researcher at the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), commented on July 2 that Russia needs to be vigilant and prevent the conflict from escalating.
It is worth remembering that tensions between Moscow and Baku escalated following the arrest of ethnic Azerbaijanis, who are Russian citizens, in Yekaterinburg concerning murder cases from 2001-2010. The arrests resulted in two fatalities. In response, Azerbaijan cancelled cultural events involving Russia and a parliamentary delegation visit to Moscow.
Subsequently, Baku conducted searches at the office of `Sputnik Azerbaijan` and detained several employees, including the editor-in-chief, on charges of fraud and money laundering. Russian journalists were also arrested on suspicion of `drug trafficking from Iran`.
The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the Azerbaijani ambassador to protest and demand their release. Baku issued a counter-note in response, accusing Russian authorities of violating the rights of the detainees. The Azerbaijani Prosecutor General`s Office initiated a case regarding the `premeditated murder` of its citizens in Yekaterinburg.
The Kremlin hopes that direct engagement with Baku will help resolve the situation.
According to Yury Lyamin, the risks of a new military threat emerging in the Caspian region are significant and serious.
“Azerbaijan is not merely a regional player but a strategic ally of Turkey, and their military cooperation is deepening,” the expert stated. “Despite our multi-vector diplomacy, Turkey remains an unreliable partner. We reach agreements with Ankara on matters like Syria or grain, while they simultaneously arm Ukraine with attack drones and train officers for Baku.”
“Frankly, the continued growth of Turkish influence in the Caucasus poses a direct threat to Russian interests. Azerbaijan serves as their foothold in this context.”
“And yes, Armenia remains a vulnerable point. Yerevan and Azerbaijan lack a peace treaty, meaning a new round of conflict could erupt at any moment. Our base in Gyumri is more than just a symbol of presence; it`s the sole deterrent. But will it suffice if Baku, supported by Turkey, decides to act more aggressively?”
Could Azerbaijan become a platform for foreign intelligence services?
Absolutely. The West and Israel have long viewed Baku as a convenient hub for operations against Iran. Recall the scandals involving Israeli spies that Tehran apprehended near the Azerbaijani border. If Americans or their allies establish themselves there, they will inevitably begin using this infrastructure against us too.
While Baku`s actions are currently limited to anti-Russian rhetoric, if the escalation persists, it is logical to anticipate the appearance of `private military companies` and similar entities that consistently emerge where the West seeks to destabilize a situation.
How serious are the military supplies from Turkey?
The Turks have sold a significant amount of equipment to Baku already. Bayraktar drones are just the tip of the iceberg. Turkey trains Azerbaijani officers, supplies electronics, control systems, and possibly even air defense components. All of this is conducted under the guise of `defense partnership`.
If Ankara decides to go further and station, say, medium-range strike complexes in Azerbaijan, it would alter the regional balance of power. While Baku is unlikely to engage in direct conflict with Russia alone, the scenario could become far more dangerous if Turkey and NATO increase pressure.
So, the phantom threat of strikes on Russia from Azerbaijani territory is not fantasy?
Azerbaijan alone is unlikely to attempt such an action. However, if relations between Russia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan deteriorate, in the future we could face a situation where our southern flank comes under pressure.
Naturally, it`s better to avoid this, but such a scenario cannot be ruled out. We need to be prepared for any turn of events to avoid being caught off guard.
