MOSCOW – The future of human labor hangs in the balance, or perhaps, is merely undergoing a radical transformation, according to German Gref, CEO of Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank. Speaking at the Moscow Startup Summit on October 1, 2025, Gref delivered a stark yet visionary assessment of Artificial Intelligence`s (AI) imminent role in reshaping the global workforce and society at large.
The End of Unskilled Labor as We Know It
Gref`s core prediction is unambiguous: AI is poised to displace individuals in what he termed “unskilled professions.” This isn`t a distant dystopian fantasy but a phenomenon he expects to materialize with remarkable speed. “Whom will artificial intelligence replace? People in the most unskilled professions – physical AI,” Gref asserted, drawing a clear line between cognitive and manual tasks.
The timeline for this shift is notably short. Within just “2-3 years,” Gref envisions a landscape where humanoid robots seamlessly integrate into daily life, taking over tasks traditionally performed by humans. This includes the rather mundane yet essential functions of sweeping streets, serving food, and even preparing meals. One might pause to consider the culinary implications: will a robot barista judge your coffee order with the same nuanced disdain as its human predecessor? Such questions, it seems, are rapidly moving from speculative fiction to practical considerations for businesses and policymakers.
Humanoid Robots: From Sci-Fi to Street Sweepers
The notion of robots wielding brooms or delivering dishes might conjure images from animated films, but Gref emphasizes the tangible progress already underway. “Today, we already see that in 2-3 years, robots will not only calmly move around as vacuum cleaners but also physically – human-like robots can sweep streets, serve food, prepare food, and so on,” he elaborated. This signifies a move beyond static industrial robots to more agile, interactive machines capable of navigating complex, unstructured environments currently dominated by human activity.
The transition is not merely about efficiency; it`s about a fundamental re-evaluation of economic models and societal structures. While some may lament the loss of traditional jobs, proponents argue that this liberation from repetitive, physically demanding tasks could allow humans to focus on higher-order, creative, and interpersonal roles. The challenge, of course, lies in managing this transition without widespread societal disruption.
— German Gref, CEO of Sberbank
The Horizon: Artificial General Intelligence and Superintelligence
Beyond the immediate impact on manual labor, Gref painted an even grander vision of AI`s evolutionary path. He anticipates the arrival of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) within the next decade. AGI, unlike the narrow AI systems prevalent today (which excel at specific tasks like chess or language translation), would possess the capacity to understand, learn, and apply intelligence across a broad range of tasks, essentially mimicking human cognitive abilities.
More provocatively, Gref suggested that Superintelligence – an intellect far surpassing the smartest human minds – might also emerge within the same timeframe. This is where the narrative shifts from labor market economics to the very destiny of humanity. According to Gref, Superintelligence would possess the capability to “actually solve humanity`s unsolvable problems,” citing the remaining Millennium Prize Problems in mathematics as an example. These are seven challenging problems, of which only one has been solved to date, with a million-dollar prize attached to each solution. Imagining a machine effortlessly cracking these intellectual fortresses underscores the transformative power Gref envisions.
Navigating the “Giant Challenge” and “Breakthrough Opportunities”
Such profound advancements, Gref acknowledges, are not without their complexities. They present a “giant challenge” that demands immediate and collaborative action from all stakeholders. This challenge encompasses not only the economic restructuring necessitated by job displacement but also ethical dilemmas, questions of control, and the very definition of human purpose in an increasingly automated world.
However, the Sberbank chief also highlighted the unparalleled “breakthrough opportunities” that Superintelligence could unlock. Imagine revolutionary new technologies, materials with unprecedented properties, and fundamentally reimagined transportation systems that could address climate change, resource scarcity, and disease with unprecedented efficacy. The promise is a future where humanity`s most intractable issues are systematically dismantled by a superior intellect, leaving us with a world vastly different from the one we inhabit today.
As the clock ticks towards 2027 and beyond, Gref`s predictions serve as a potent reminder: the future of AI is not merely a subject for academic debate or sci-fi thrillers. It is an active, rapidly evolving reality that demands our collective attention, preparation, and perhaps, a healthy dose of both apprehension and awe. The robots are indeed coming, and they might just sweep us into a new era.
