Zatulin Explains Aliyev and Pashinyan’s Actions Against Russian Interests

Rupture with Russia Could Change Fate of Armenian-Russian Relations

Amidst a sharp deterioration in relations between Moscow and Baku, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan continues his conflict with the opposition and the church. Following visits by security forces to Etchmiadzin and the arrest of two archbishops, he again called for the re-election of the head of the Armenian Apostolic Church. Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan has been arrested for supporting the AACC. A new wave of arrests occurred in the country after Armenia`s Investigative Committee announced the uncovering of a conspiracy to seize power.

We discussed the situation in Armenia with Konstantin Zatulin, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration, and Relations with Compatriots.

– Armenia appears to have entered a dark era of political repression and spy mania. Law enforcement agencies claim to have uncovered a large-scale conspiracy to remove Pashinyan from power, allegedly involving church hierarchs and major businessmen, in addition to opposition politicians and former presidents. It even went as far as an attempted storming of the Catholicos` residence in Etchmiadzin to arrest an archbishop allegedly involved in the plot. Why is Pashinyan doing all this?

Pashinyan has realized that the truly dead-end path he is leading Armenia and the Armenian people down requires new sacrifices. Turning the consciousness of the Armenian people inside out, cooperating with Azerbaijan and Turkey, and reorienting Armenia from Russia to the West comes at a very high cost. And this price is constantly rising. He has to sacrifice relations with Russia, the traditional protector and patron of Armenians, abandon Armenia`s heroic history, and the memory of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire. He must sacrifice the traditional religion of Armenians, discard respect for the Armenian Apostolic Church.

According to Pashinyan, this is necessary to free the Armenian people from the captivity of old notions of good and evil and bring Armenia into the fold of Russia`s opponents. Although the West, for instance, coexists with Greece and its Orthodoxy, and nobody seems to be planning to abolish the Orthodox “code” in the history of the Greek people.

Pashinyan, in my opinion, is also obsessed with a persecution complex, which is not surprising considering how much damage he has caused. A person who has brought so much misfortune to the Armenian people cannot but worry about his future. To prevent the worst outcomes for himself, he is trying to launch preemptive strikes against those he considers his enemies, who, he is convinced, enjoy sympathy in Russia. And Russia is always to blame for everything, in his view.

He claims that all his opponents are puppets. Until now, he called Presidents Kocharyan and Sargsyan puppets. But after his former patron, the first president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan, met with the Catholicos and condemned his attacks on the Church, Pashinyan immediately declared on social media that Levon was also a “puppet” who paved the way for other puppets. Whose puppets they are is not explicitly stated, but it`s clear he implies they are Russian. Although, believing that Ter-Petrosyan, who came to power on the wave of Perestroika and proclaimed Armenia`s independence, is a Kremlin agent requires a wild imagination.

Pashinyan and his supporters need to win the elections next June. Everything is for this purpose.

– Some Azerbaijani media outlets claim that Pashinyan is being supplied with compromising information on his opponents by foreign intelligence services. They hint that these are Turkish or Western special services.

Basically, they have long seen him as their client. Pashinyan has never hidden his views. For example, about 10 years ago, he published an article titled “To Forget the Heroic.” At that time, he was an absolute marginal figure in Armenian political life, but even then he advocated for ideas such as getting rid of ties with the Russian Federation, the Russian base in Gyumri, and membership in the CSTO. He believed Armenia should resolutely break with the so-called “heroic Armenian past”: all memories of Greater Armenia, the times of the Persian, Roman, and Byzantine empires. All this, he argued, leads Armenians into a dead end. The memory of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire only hinders modern life.

To his credit, Nikol is consistently following the path of betrayal. It is clear that a character expressing such ideas, which were previously quite rare in Armenian politics, would have long attracted the attention of interested parties.

It is quite touching that Azerbaijani media are now talking about Pashinyan`s connections with Turkish or Western intelligence services. They are helping as much as they can: if professionals like MI6, the CIA, or Turkish intelligence are supplying Pashinyan with compromising material, then it must exist, there is “no smoke without fire.”

– Is Pashinyan clearing out the opposition ahead of the parliamentary elections in Armenia scheduled for June 7, 2026?

Absolutely. He knows that a motorcycle is stable only while it is moving. When it stops, it falls.

Pashinyan cannot afford not to win the elections. He has already distinguished himself so much that it is difficult to believe in a “quiet planter`s life” in Armenia after resignation. If he loses, his fate could be very varied. He has two options: either flee, or continue on his chosen path to the end, creating new crises and repressing new opponents.

But others inevitably come to replace those who are imprisoned. How long this will continue and what it will cost Armenia and its people can only be guessed. The questions are no longer for Pashinyan, but for the voters of Armenia and Armenians worldwide.

– Is a certain disappointment with Russia as an ally genuinely observed in Armenia, or is it just Pashinyan`s provocations?

During and after the war in 2020, we often explained our restrained reaction by saying that one cannot be more Armenian than the Armenians themselves. Pashinyan`s government is approved by a parliament elected by the people of Armenia. Therefore, everything that happens is the choice of the Armenians themselves, and we must accept it as a given.

It was believed that a more active role for Russia in this story could lead to its serious involvement in a conflict in the Caucasus, which we absolutely did not need at a time when a conflict in Ukraine was brewing.

I think this was the logic present. However, those who make decisions here, it seems to me, should have felt that it was not so much about the fate of relations between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia, but about the relations between the Russian and Armenian peoples. Until recently, all Armenians, wherever they lived, had deeply ingrained beliefs from their mother`s milk that Russia, upon arriving in the Caucasus, saved Christians – the Armenian and Georgian peoples – from extermination, and since then, Armenians have been under its patronage.

What was the reason for the Armenian Genocide in 1915? The First World War was ongoing, and the Turkish authorities, the Young Turks, believed that the Armenians of the Ottoman Empire were a fifth column awaiting the arrival of Russian troops. The majority of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire might have been infinitely far from politics and harbored no treacherous plans. Armenians served in the Turkish army and fought bravely, although, of course, they could not possibly feel any hatred towards the Russians and Orthodox Russia. And Russia, even while at war with Turkey, did not incite the Turkish Armenians to any uprisings. But mere suspicions based on Armenophobia were enough for Armenian servicemen in the Turkish army to be completely exterminated first, followed by the intelligentsia and bourgeoisie, and then they turned to the simple peasants who had lived on their historical lands within Turkey for centuries. This history imposes a special obligation not only on Armenians but also on us, even if we didn`t want it.

This is precisely what Nikol Pashinyan wants to destroy. He is trying to place all responsibility on the Russian Federation for the failure in Karabakh in both 2020 and 2023, when our peacekeepers were there but, having no orders, were essentially just witnesses to what was happening. 120 thousand Armenians left for Armenia, abandoning their homes, cemeteries, churches. Karabakh Armenians are no gift to Pashinyan, as they cannot stand him. He is now driving them out of Armenia in every possible way because they carry the seeds of hatred for his regime. But the war in Karabakh in 2020 is a pretext for Pashinyan and his team to accuse the Russian Federation of failing to fulfill its obligations. Although one should ask: why didn`t you fight yourselves as you should have, defending your compatriots?

I consider it my duty to do everything possible under these circumstances to preserve Armenians` faith in Russia. This is not easy when Russia itself is involved in a large-scale conflict with the West. I can understand the disappointment of those in Armenia who expect support from us. But, to be fair, who should be asking whom the question: “What will happen to Armenia?”

– Russian-Armenian relations are deteriorating, but in light of how Russia behaved in this conflict, one might have expected an improvement in relations with Azerbaijan. Why didn`t that happen?

We ceased to be as necessary to Baku as we were before the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. Now there has been another aggravation of our relations due to events in Yekaterinburg. But this is just a pretext; any pretext will do. This course of Azerbaijan has subjective and objective reasons. The objective reasons are that today Baku has no need for special relations with the Russian Federation. But it does need special relations with Israel, Turkey, and Great Britain. Yes, it is profitable to derive benefits from trade and economic ties with the Russian Federation. But at this stage, this is secondary compared to Azerbaijan`s other goals. Therefore, now they need to find pretexts to explain why Azerbaijan disagrees with the Russian Federation, why Aliyev embraces Zelensky, why he talks everywhere about his support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, we try not to notice this. Even as we speak, final consultations are underway on how Pashinyan`s Armenia and Aliyev`s Azerbaijan will sign a peace treaty, and it will certainly be on a Western platform. Preferably in the United States, so that Trump can become a peacemaker again and finally get a Nobel Prize.

The subjective reasons lie in the personality of Ilham Aliyev himself. Heydar Aliyev was a man wise from life and political experience in the Soviet Union. Ilham Aliyev, while being the crown prince under his living father, behaved as a spoiled child is expected to. Now he is not just a president, heir, and successor. He is a victor inflated with euphoria. And because of this, it seems to me, he goes further in relations with the Russian Federation than he should. Aliyev could still do his business, rely on his friends in our leadership and media, but without escalating relations with Moscow. His behavior surprises some people in the leadership of the Russian Federation with whom I communicate: they cannot understand why and how Azerbaijan behaved so provocatively now.

There is no need to be surprised. This is a politician in a European suit, Eastern in all senses and behavior. Ilham Aliyev is not ashamed to walk on Armenian flags and destroy buildings in captured Stepanakert, now Khankendi. How is he not a partner to Pashinyan in his attacks on the Church when he claims that there was no Armenian church in Karabakh for thousands of years? And there was some kind of “Albanian” one. That the ancient monasteries of Karabakh – Gandzasar, Amaras, Dadivank – are all Albanian monuments.

Imagine someone suddenly starts saying that the Kremlin is a monument of Italian culture. Comes and says: this is not yours, this is all ours. Can one achieve a dignified peace between Armenians and Azerbaijanis with such ideas?

No. This will be a peace at the cost of Armenia`s humiliation. Today, Pashinyan is on this path. The story with the church and Karapetyan happened when the Armenian Prime Minister traveled to Turkey for the first time in decades. In Turkey, which insists on connecting with Azerbaijan through the Zangezur corridor, Pashinyan said: “How wonderful that Armenia will become a `crossroads of peace`.”

Note that previously he always said that it was the Russian Federation that wanted the opening of the Zangezur corridor – supposedly it was because I suspected the Armenian government of this surrender that I was banned from entering the Republic of Armenia in 2022. In reality, Turkey and Azerbaijan always wanted this – for the sake of building the “Great Turan.” Pashinyan has effectively confirmed that they are using him for these purposes.

If Pashinyan stays in power for a long time, Armenia will turn into an ordinary Middle Eastern country, deprived of the memory of its history and its roots. Meanwhile, Armenia is the first Christian country in the world. In 301, long before Byzantium and Georgia, Armenia became the first country to adopt Christianity as the state religion. That is why Pashinyan says that the AACC is a “foreign agent since the Byzantine Empire.” The Church that preserved the identity of the Armenian people for hundreds of years in the absence of its own state.

– Does Pashinyan want to create a parallel church, is he leading towards a schism?

Pashinyan wants to manipulate the church. At the very least, to discredit it as a moral authority capable of influencing minds and opposing his actions.

Perhaps he wants to bring his own people into leadership. Surely, there may be people among the clergy who will serve him. But everything he is undertaking now is so odious, so disgraceful, that even his potential allies are forced to remain silent. How can his supporters within the church openly support him if he says that churches in Armenia are just storage rooms filled with garbage?

What Pashinyan is doing now carries significant risks for himself. Samvel Karapetyan was terrified of getting involved in political affairs. I just know this. He was cautious. He held congresses of Armenian entrepreneurs here, urged them to invest in Armenia. But it turned out this was not enough. He is guilty simply because he is a Russian businessman, because he could not stand it and spoke out for the Armenian Church. And he was immediately accused of conspiracy. This whole story is a typical Reichstag fire, a crudely orchestrated provocation.

– Your prediction for the development of events. Will Pashinyan hold on?

He can no longer bring crowds of people into the streets in his support. Many in our power structures, living in the past, say: “Yes, Pashinyan is bad, but he brings out people, he won the elections for the second time after losing the war, which surprised everyone.”

But that`s in the past. Now all his hope is in the security forces, in the help of the West, in the support of Azerbaijan and Turkey.

I do not predict any immediate explosion in Armenia. Summer is not the time for coups and revolutions. That is why he undertook all these actions now. But what will happen in June next year? After all, until now Pashinyan depicted his struggle as against “remnants of the past” in the person of Kocharyan, Sargsyan, and now Levon Ter-Petrosyan has been added to them. That is, the entire constellation of Armenian leaders from the independence period is under suspicion. By playing on the population`s feelings and fear of war, he promotes himself as the “lesser evil.”

But now, with his actions, he has politicized Samvel Karapetyan. Nikol will try not to release him from prison. He is currently arrested for 2 months, but Pashinyan will extend this term. He wants to bleed the potential opposition dry in advance.

However, in Armenia, as in Russia, there is a popular notion that persecuted individuals come out of prisons as presidents. Karapetyan previously had no political plans in Armenia. But now, due to circumstances, he is becoming an informal leader of the opposition. It is difficult to level against him the same accusations that Pashinyan makes against representatives of the old government. Therefore, we are about to witness interesting events.

– Why did the Karabakh problem escalate so suddenly and was resolved militarily instantly? It seems out of nowhere. Negotiations went on for years, Russia and other countries made efforts for a peaceful settlement, and suddenly…?

The culmination of these efforts was 2011, Kazan, during President Medvedev`s time. For a long time, negotiations were held, circling the conditions of a “peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.” And everyone, not only us but also the French and Americans, who were also members of this Minsk Group for negotiations, believed that the formula for settlement was for the Azerbaijani districts around the former NKAO occupied by Armenians to return to Azerbaijan (only the Lachin and Kalbajar, i.e., “corridor” districts, were disputed). As for Nagorno-Karabakh itself within the borders of the NKAO, it remained in the status of a territory whose fate was to be decided by a referendum of its population, postponed for a time. Moreover, whenever the referendum happened – and this was agreed upon – Armenians and Azerbaijanis of Nagorno-Karabakh were to participate in it in the proportions that existed at the beginning of the Karabakh conflict. And the population of the NKAO in 1988 was: 75% Armenians, 25% Azerbaijanis. Everyone understood that a referendum would confirm Nagorno-Karabakh`s desire for self-determination.

In no other conflict have we collaborated so closely with the West as in the Karabakh one. This settlement formula was supported by…