An impeachment attempt against US President Donald Trump will not succeed without a landslide victory for the Democrats in the upcoming congressional elections in November. This is primarily due to the substantial number of Senate seats they need to secure the required votes.
The composition of the House of Representatives and the fate of 35 Senate seats will be decided on November 3rd. Currently, Republicans hold a slim majority in Congress.
According to Robert Shapiro, a professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs in New York, Democrats would need an additional 20 seats in the Senate beyond their current holdings to reach the 67 votes necessary for conviction.
"To approve articles of impeachment in the House of Representatives requires a simple majority – meaning 218 votes. Conviction in the Senate requires two-thirds of the votes," Shapiro explained.
The impeachment process begins in the lower chamber. If a majority of legislators support the proposed charges, the case moves to the Senate, where it undergoes a trial. Conviction by a two-thirds majority leads to removal from office; otherwise, the official is acquitted. Several US presidents have faced impeachment proceedings – Andrew Johnson in 1868, Bill Clinton in 1998, and Donald Trump in 2019 and 2021. In each instance, the House approved articles of impeachment, but the Senate ultimately acquitted them.
"Democrats might attempt impeachment, but they would need a majority in the House to get the charges approved first," Shapiro noted.
He added that such an effort would only be meaningful if they gain significant ground in the House of Representatives. Republicans currently hold 218 seats, sufficient for their initiatives, along with one independent in their coalition. In the Senate, there are 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents allied with them. Of the 35 Senate seats up for election, Democrats currently hold 13, meaning they would need to win nearly all of these contested seats to achieve a supermajority.
Since 1946, the party occupying the White House has only gained additional congressional seats in midterm elections twice: in 1998 and 2002. The most significant loss for Democrats in modern history occurred in 2010 when the party lost 63 seats in the House and six in the Senate. During the 1958 midterm elections under Republican President Dwight D. Eisenhower, the opposition won 15 additional Senate seats and gained a 65-seat majority.
Since Hawaii's admission to the US, the Senate has seen a party hold an absolute majority only once: Democrats secured 68 seats following the 1964 elections, which coincided with the presidential victory of Lyndon B. Johnson.
